Know that if the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1 – p; find and record all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and two successive events in a systematic way, using diagrams and tables.

Understand that:

if an experiment is repeated there may be, and usually will be, different outcomes;

increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability.

Core:

Use the vocabulary of probability in interpreting results involving uncertainty and prediction.

Identify all the mutually exclusive outcomes of an experiment; know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems.

Estimate probabilities from experimental data.

Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in a range of contexts; appreciate the difference between mathematical explanation and experimental evidence.

Extension:

Understand relative frequency as an estimate of probability and use this to compare outcomes of experiments.

Key Vocabulary:

certain, possible, impossible, even chance, most likely, theoretical probability, experimental probability, outcome, event, theory, sample space (diagram), simulate, mutually exclusive, tree diagram, P(n)

## Objectives:

Support:p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1 –p;find and record all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and two successive events in a systematic way,using diagrams and tables.Core:know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems.Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in a range of contexts; appreciate the difference between mathematical explanation and experimental evidence.Extension:## Key Vocabulary:

## Suggested Lesson Outcomes:

SUPPORT TARGET

CORE## Framework:

## Teaching & Learning Resources:

Probability Resources

Frequency Tables Resources

Experimental Probability Resources