Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1; find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts.

Collect data from a simple experiment and record in a frequency table; estimate probabilities based on this data.

Core:

Use the vocabulary of probability when interpreting the results of an experiment; appreciate that random processes are unpredictable.

Know that if the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1 – p; find and record all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and two successive events in a systematic way, using diagrams and tables.

Estimate probabilities from experimental data; understand that:

if an experiment is repeated there may be, and usually will be, different outcomes;

increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability.

Extension:

Identify all the mutually exclusive outcomes of an experiment; know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems.

Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in a range of contexts; appreciate the difference between mathematical explanation and experimental evidence.

Key Vocabulary:

fair / certain / likely / unlikely / impossible / good chance / poor chance / even chance / fifty-fifty chance; chance / likelihood / risk / probability / experimental probability / theoretical probability; outcome, event, theory, sample, sample space, biased.

## Objectives:

Support:Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1; find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts.Core:p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1 –p;find and record all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and two successive events in a systematic way,using diagrams and tables.Extension:know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems.## Key Vocabulary:

## Suggested Lesson Outcomes:

SUPPORT

CORE## Framework:

## Teaching & Learning Resources:

Frequency Table Resources

Probability Resources

Experimental Probability Resources