• Understand and use the probability scale from 0 to 1; find and justify probabilities based on equally likely outcomes in simple contexts.
  • Collect data from a simple experiment and record in a frequency table; estimate probabilities based on this data.


  • Use the vocabulary of probability when interpreting the results of an experiment; appreciate that random processes are unpredictable.
  • Know that if the probability of an event occurring is p, then the probability of it not occurring is 1 – p; find and record all possible mutually exclusive outcomes for single events and two successive events in a systematic way, using diagrams and tables.
  • Estimate probabilities from experimental data; understand that:
    • if an experiment is repeated there may be, and usually will be, different outcomes;
    • increasing the number of times an experiment is repeated generally leads to better estimates of probability.


  • Identify all the mutually exclusive outcomes of an experiment; know that the sum of probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes is 1 and use this when solving problems.
  • Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities in a range of contexts; appreciate the difference between mathematical explanation and experimental evidence.

Key Vocabulary:

  • fair / certain / likely / unlikely / impossible / good chance / poor chance / even chance / fifty-fifty chance; chance / likelihood / risk / probability / experimental probability / theoretical probability; outcome, event, theory, sample, sample space, biased.

Suggested Lesson Outcomes:



Teaching & Learning Resources:

Frequency Table Resources
Probability Resources
Experimental Probability Resources